War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".