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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.