A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
